Polls vs MarketsFirst Faved : Aug 29 2008 by mohitFaved : 2 times with notesViewed : 5 timesFave It!
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- StephenMeyer1216 - Aug 30 2008 | Political Polls
Interesting site on political Polls
Quoted: Musings of a VC in NYC
Quoted: Yesterday, he sent me a link to their new election dashboard service which I have bookmarked and will now visit everyday until the election.
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Hub Dub has it at 70% Obama, 30% McCain and that also has not moved much in the past three months.
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So why is it that the polls are tight and tightening and the markets are not? And are markets better predictors of news than polls? I suspect the answer to that is yes.
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Fascinating -- I'm new to prediction markets. Are p[eople actually betting money on these predictions?
Hi Bill. Good question. I don't know. Also, this comment made me realize that the discrepancy between the polling and market numbers is not that surprising:
http://www.avc.com/a_vc/2008/08/comment-of-the.html
Just checked InTrade (one of the profiled prediction markets). People are actually betting real money on these predictions.
Thanks for that link. It explains a lot. I also wonder how the demographics might be skewed. People who vote on such things are pretty atypical, I'd think.
also see http://apps.new.facebook.com/ivotemccain and http://apps.new.facebook.com/ivoteobama - obama does much better than mccain in the facebook world. :)