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Interesting read. I think there is some truth to it. However part of the credit for this resurgent interest in politics among "independents" and casual observers is owed to the circumstances of this election. You have a lame duck that has become increasingly incompetent and is a poster child for the spite-inducing Aristocratic facets of our country and our government. Its only natural for people to look to someone that seems to be the complete opposite of what we currently have.
I will admit that I have been waking up at 9am on Sundays for the past month or so to listen to the talking heads summarize the week in presidential politics.
Quoted: But there is something else going on here. Obama is the first candidate of his generation truly to be an agent of change who inspires, motivates and ignites the passion in a large segment of Americans who had ignored politics because it was unseemly and didn't move people to action. My e-mail inbox and my talk show lines filled up with people who say that listening to Obama empowers them to get involved, that he is able to connect with them on an emotional and spiritual level that is reminiscent of John and Robert Kennedy and the Rev. Martin Luther King Jr.
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For me, nothing is different now than it was in '04. It's surprising, maybe even shocking to me that for so many people it is.
I don't agree with the author that Obama was dismissed early in his candidacy. He started out pretty close to even and Hillary ran a strong early campaign while Obama waited for the right time to make a push. But that speech in Springfield was met w/ a ton of fanfare, not "oh, that's nice," like he says.
How the media was duped into believing this thing was over is beyond me. You'd think they could at least look back as far as the last election before making these predictions. But oh well. The Obama swell came. Let's just hope the media doesn't jinx him too. They look just as stupid now about McCain, who would probably be Obama's toughest competitor in the general.
Drew, I wasn't sure if he was referring to the informal polling that suggested that Hilary was going to get more of the black vote than Obama, coupled with the assumption that she'd pull all of the female vote. You're right, the "official" numbers showed them to be neck and neck since day one, I think some people just made some assumptions that were only recently defeated after Iowa.
Well he definitely slid in the numbers for a while, but he was taken very seriously to begin with.
And...there's your jinx. The media really does not need to be predicting outcomes.
Yeah no kidding. And I hate to sound sexist, because maybe the women of NH were already leaning her way, but it appears that Hilary played the old "cry for sympathy" card to perfection. I just can't believe New Hampshire rewarded her.