This might be it, applications for mortgages/refi's are dropping to correspond with slowed sales and seasonal adjustments. This may be the best chance to get in to refi - the interest rates will not hold at this level for long

Quoted: “The holiday effect [the decline in home buying activity during the November-December holiday season] is a few short weeks away while mortgage rates are moving higher and the window on the $8000 first time buyer incentive is quickly closing.”

Interesting analysis from the Royal Bank of Scotland that prices are stabilizing ahead of schedule. Recent reports have shown a consistent month to month trend of slowed pricing decreases. However, the US consumer confidence report for last month just came out and said that confidence dipped significantly more than analysts had anticipated. Spending, as this article suggests, may have been stable for the period examined, but it appears that there is still some instability ahead.

Quoted: The US economy and housing market in particular are recovering well ahead of the schedule previously anticipated by analysts and market observers, according to commentary by Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) economists. RBS raised its near-term gross domestic product (GDP) forecasts “significantly” in response to positive economic data. Risks of a second economic dip are diminishing as post-Cash for Clunkers consumer spending remains stronger than analysts expected.

California still leads the way in housing fraud

Quoted: The Property Valuation Fraud Risk Index is up 25% from the previous quarter and up 46% from the year-ago quarter, indicating a shift toward fraudulent schemes involving short sales, real estate-owned inventories and refinancings by borrowers with equity impaired by falling property values

Yah, that makes sense - I'd think the number would be even higher. The key to the statement is that Federally backed loans are in high use for sales with a loan-to-value of 96.5% to 100%. FHA loans, for example, require 3.5% down - not many other types of loans will allow a buyer to come in with such little money.

Quoted: Federally backed mortgages account for 59% of new home sales transactions with 96.5% to 100% loan-to-value (LTV) so far in 2009, according to the latest ...

Sales figures dropped about 10% in the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue metro area in August compared to July of this year.

Worrying is the number of FHA loans being used. With a minimum down of 3.5%, these have a higher default rate than other types of mortgages.

Quoted: Adjustable rate mortgages (ARMs) accounted for 4.8% of the region’s purchase mortgages in August, up from 4.4% in July, while Federal Housing Administration (FHA) loans accounted for 37.6% of all purchase mortgages.

More changes coming for FHA loans - it's gotten confusing already.

Quoted: A bill that calls for an increase to the down payment requirement for FHA loans from 3.5% to 5% would also prohibit borrowers from including closing costs in the principal of the mortgage.

A high number of loan modifications and other efforts aimed at helping banks and homeowners work on an acceptable alternative to foreclosure do not end up working out for long, many studies have shown.

Quoted: “There is as yet no data to confirm that foreclosure mediation programs anywhere have led to a substantial number of affordable and sustainable loan modifications,” according to the report

We're not out of the storm yet, which is why I think it's likely congress will pass a measure to extend housing consulting services and the buyer's tax credit.

Quoted: A four-month streak of improvements in existing home sales gave way to a seasonally adjusted 2.7 percent dip in August, according to the National Association of Realtors, as prospective buyers of condos and single-family homes pulled back across the Northeast, the South and the Midwest.

Quoted: Amid the collapse of the subprime lending market, the government has taken up the slack. The F.H.A. has insured nearly a quarter of all new loans made this year, and about 80 percent of that business is from first-time home buyers.